Today, there are entire ecosystems within financial analysis that only look at the nature of human behavior and create prediction models for it.
They use this information to inform large decisions in the market and also look at external factors such as economic reports, company filings, and other information regarding the health of a business, or even country if we're talking currency exchange. In the world of trading this is known as Fundamental Analysis.
In summary, this approach to trading and investing is all about looking at the external data surrounding a symbol/ticker - using outside information to determine what may be effecting it's movement.
To truly understand trading, we must recognize that while markets are influenced by human decisions, they also operate under a set of rules far more tangible than the outcome of a report or news filing.
If the fundamentals is the force that move the market in either direction on a large scale, is that the same force that moves it on a smaller scale?
A simple question: If there is good news in the market, why did the market move down today? If markets were simply a disagreement on value, might this mean that we also can disagree on what is good vs what is bad?
It only takes one look at the world of politics to reveal that answer.
It has been believed that behind the markets there is a dark algorithm, a type of watcher spirit that looks out for where unassuming traders place their stop levels.
They use these areas as a liquidity store and when the moment is right, the all seeing eye shoots down or up to your stop loss to take your order out and you're left with a loss.
In a state of despair and annoyed that your new favorite trading guru lied again, you might sit this one out wait a few more hours, and there it is. You were correct on the direction, just not the trade. You should have put your entry where you where you put your stop loss, and put your stop loss lower.
This scenario plays out in the market for millions of traders everyday.
In trading, if a trade looks to good to be true, it probably is. This brings us to the next topic, the one you and most are probably familiar with. Technical Analysis.
In summary, Technical Analysis (TA) is all about using chart patterns to determine when to enter into a market.
Just as with Fundamental Analysis it is about understanding the energy of the market, TA takes a more object perspective.
With TA, the only dimension observed are the X and Y values of a chart. Regardless of any external information surrounding the asset or instrument - the only questions asked are:
After viewing charts for sometime, you will easily see there is an underlying structure to markets that exhibit the same consistent behaviors time and time again. It might not be completely discernible what it is you see, but undeniably it's there somewhere.
Technical Analysis essentially is the art of studying these patterns, and where most traders today begin their journey.
Rthmn brings a new paradigm of Technical Analysis.
Now let's talk about how time isn't real.